Direct Answer
Closing line analysis compares the price you took on a bet against the market's closing price on the same outcome. It is the most reliable real-world test of whether a bettor has genuine edge.
Key Takeaways
- CLV is the cleanest skill metric available.
- Track every bet, not memorable ones.
- Per-sport breakouts reveal where edge actually lives.
The procedure
For every bet, record price taken, price at close, and stake. Convert each price to implied probability, take the difference, and weight by stake. Average across a meaningful sample (50+ bets) and across sports.
Interpreting results
Persistent positive CLV across uncorrelated markets implies durable edge. Positive CLV in one sport but negative in others suggests you have one signal, not a system. Negative CLV across the board is the market telling you the truth.
Frequently asked questions
How long until CLV gives a clear answer?+
Often 30–50 bets for a directional read; 200+ for a confident assessment of magnitude.
Educational only. Not wagering, financial, or legal advice. See our editorial policy.